Marketing

What your emails brought in

Paid

An estimate of the visits your emails caused in the last 30 days, after subtracting the visits those customers would have made anyway. It never flatters: regulars come in regardless, and the estimate knows that.

Open it

How to use it

  1. Send an email from Slow Day SOS, Rainy day, Email your regulars, or let the win-back email go.
  2. Wait three days. Nothing is shown for a send until its three-day window has closed.
  3. Read the card on the Marketing overview: how many of the people you emailed came in within three days, and how many of those visits were extra.
  4. Enter your average sale in Settings to see the extra visits as money. That figure stays in your browser; our servers only count visits.
  5. An extra stamp given for an email address is not counted here. Nobody walked in for it — they typed an address on the tablet while they were already standing there — so counting it would credit one visit to an email twice.

What it does

  • How it is worked out, for one email with a window of 3 days. Observed: the number of people who got the email and had at least one stamp in the three days after it. For each person who had three or more visits before the email, their usual gap g is the average number of days between their visits, and their chance of coming in anyway is p = 1 − e^(−3 ÷ g). For someone with fewer than three visits, p is the middle value of the other recipients’ p; if nobody has one, p is 0.10. Expected is the sum of all the p’s. Extra is observed minus expected, never below zero.
  • A worked example. Ten people got an email. Four of them usually come every 2 days: p = 1 − e^(−1.5) = 0.7769 each. Six usually come every 10 days: p = 1 − e^(−0.3) = 0.2592 each. Expected = 4 × 0.7769 + 6 × 0.2592 = 4.6628. Seven of the ten came in, so extra = 7 − 4.6628 = 2.3372 visits. At an $8 average sale that is about $18.70. Counting all seven visits at $8 would have claimed $56, three times too much.
  • A stamp is credited to at most one email: the most recent one that person got before it.
  • Review requests and their reminders are never counted here. They ask for a review, not for a visit.
  • People who got the win-back email are, by definition, overdue. Their usual gap overstates their chance of coming back on their own, so the estimate for win-back emails is on the low side. It is left that way on purpose.
  • The card counts the last 30 days and says how many emails are still inside their window.
  • It is an estimate. Nobody can know for certain why a customer came in.

Related screens